| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 2026 | W | New Mexico State | 34-17 | 1667.3 | -17.5 | 1649.9 | 92.7% |
| 1 | Sep 7 2026 | L | SMU | 24-27 | 1667.3 | -17.5 | 1649.9 | 47.4% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | L | Alabama | 36-50 | 1650.2 | +11.5 | 1661.7 | 12.1% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Central Arkansas | 34-7 | 1661.7 | -10.8 | 1650.9 | 96.6% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Virginia | 38-7 | 1650.9 | +62.8 | 1713.7 | 33.1% |
| 6 | Oct 9 2026 | L | Louisville | 20-44 | 1713.7 | -42.3 | 1671.4 | 50.1% |